Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks.
Last month, our economic forecast was degraded by supply chain shortcomings - and this has now been alleviated in the last 30 days causing the March 2013 Economic Index to improve relative to the previous month.
After beginning the week strongly, corn futures slipped lower as the Tuesday trading session passed. Weather concerns are probably providing considerable support at this juncture, since forecasts imply the central U.S. will remain dry during the weeks just ahead. Moreover, growing dryness in Brazil and Argentina are raising questions about the forthcoming South American harvest. However, one other fact of life in recent weeks has been the poor rate of American corn exports as well as talk of slowing demand from the domestic ethanol industry. Thus, having the weekly Export Inspections report show only a modest improvement from the low figure posted last week seemed to undercut CBOT futures. March corn ended the Chicago session having risen 1 cent to $7.28 1/2; December posted a similar advance, to $5.90/bushel.
LONDON (Reuters) - The world economy should perform slightly better this year because recovering growth in Asia will gradually overpower the political and economic malaise in the West, according to Reuters...